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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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“In our judgment, Evolution’s ineffective compliance procesures have allowed these situations to develop and therefore need prompt reevaluation and enhancement in order to comply fully with the terms of the contracts,” the report reads.

“Evolution may be unwittingly susceptible to having its games played through third-party operators, in violation of its contracts…”

The firm goes on to confirm that Evolution had therefore received income from these unauthorised activities.

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He said the regulation was well established and not with the intention of raising revenue.

“Tax collection is part of the economic game and all sectors contribute,” Durigan said. “The same happens with betting.”

He argued the sector should be treated with the same rigour currently applied to cigarettes.