Devil Fire

What is Devil Fire?

Jesper Kampmann Madsen, the founder of London-based tech firm Trace2Trace, is building technology to map the networks behind illegal gambling. Madsen, 35, and born in Denmark, knows what it means to be on the other side of the screen: as his decision to fight illegal gambling stems back to his own addiction, he tells iGB.

He was a teenager when he started gambling habitually. For several years, it remained entertainment. Then, when he was in his early twenties, came a large win on a foreign unlicensed gambling site: around €22,000.

“I remember gambling all of it back the same day because they couldn’t pay it out in full immediately,” he says.

What is Devil Fire?

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

About Devil Fire

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.