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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Added Bender: Genius’ recent deals with Kalshi and Polymarket “have provided an incremental positive catalyst for [Legend founder] Mr Kisberg and team”.
“We think investors will be looking for signs that Genius can leverage Legend’s relationship to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding sports betting and prediction market opportunity,” he aded in a note this week.
Genius founder and CEO Mark Locke this week touted Genius’ position as a provider of official data, settlement and integrity services to both traditional betting and predictions platforms.
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An Australian casino player is taking Royal Caribbean to court, arguing that the company banned him from sailing with its services and from playing at its casinos over his ability to count cards. After previously winning a legal battle against Star Casino, Mark Timothy Grant is now moving to confront the cruise line.
Grant argues that he has booked five Royal Caribbean cruises that were valued at a total of AUD 22,000. He booked the cruises with money he won playing at the Royal Caribbean’s ships’ casinos.
However, before he could even board the first cruise, Grant was told that he would not be able to proceed onboard. Grant had his son and partner along with him. The company only then went to inform Grant that he had been placed on a “no sail” list, effectively a ban, because of “breaking the house rules” in the casino.
